Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are released from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from enemy soil, a capacity enabled by current data. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: several firings deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every firing shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: possibly the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a automatic firearm fired at a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: multiple fatalities, devastation and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a need that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from American administration follows the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This pattern will, undoubtedly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House believes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its benefit in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing people and territory but preventing a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its benefit.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not move to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to terminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on continued Western support.
